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Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32308/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the S/SE in STEREO A COR2. The source may be a C8.9 flare from AR 3762, with dimming visible starting 2024-07-29T01:17Z in SDO AIA 193. Post-eruptive arcades are also observed. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. The CME is faint, especially in STEREO A COR2, with an unclear leading edge, leading to some uncertainty in the source of this CME. The X1.5 flare from AR 3764 starting at 2024-07-29T02:33Z, after the start of this CME, and is not a source candidate for this event. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 68.13 hour(s)
Difference: -1.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-07-29T20:39Z

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